Seriously, zugan. What a miserable game I just had. But it was really interesting! So let's talk about it.
This round was one of those frustrating ones when your hand goes well until the very last moment and you deal in when the win is oh so close to you. I opened up by dealing into a haneman followed by a mangan, putting me in a pretty pathetic situation throughout. I couldn't make anything happen and ultimately I wound up with 1800 points in all-last. Now it's no longer pathetic, it's desperate. To make matters worse, the dealer is already close to what is almost certainly a flush. If I deal into her I'm dead.
My first dumb move here is getting rid of 6p and then 3s when it came: I should have set my hand back a little bit and thrown out 9s, looking for the tanyao. Even though this hand made it to tenpai, it's worthless (no yaku, one dora) and I need a gigantic hand, over baiman (18000) to even get out of last place. I didn't want to lose the use of the dora in case 8m came, but note that as of this draw there's already three of 8m out. (It was still stupid, 9m had to go) So I try and fix my mistake and get rid of 9m, hoping that maybe another 7m (the dora) will come and I'll be a little closer to a hand that can get me out of last place.
So here it is, right? Dora 2, tanyao, pinfu, with a reach it's at least mangan. I could even have a 456 sanshoku: why, this hand could really become the baiman hand I need to get into third place! There's only one problem: I have to get rid of either 4s or 7s, either of which our lady on the right is likely to need. I have to throw out the 7s if I want sanshoku. However, 4s looks less dangerous to me from here: tiles around it have been discarded and called on. I get rid of 4s, abandoning the potential for sanshoku, and hope someone deals into me or I pull some ura-dora: this hand by itself is not going to save me.
So I end up drawing it on the very last tile (haitei raoyue). I even end up drawing the 4p that would have made it sanshoku had I let go of 7s instead. This hand would have been 18,000 points, which would have at least saved me from last place. At this point I'm totally kicking myself.
Naturally I go straight to the replay and find out what the dealer's wait was. 7s. I was actually right.If I had gone for the high scoring hand I would have lost immediately.
Or was I? Was the right move, in the pure theoretical sense, to just get rid of the riskier tile and go for the hand that had the slightly better chance of saving me? There was no guarantee the sanshoku was going to come, after all. I got a real "damned if you do, damned if you don't" feeling when I looked at this replay. But my real mistake was probably in those bad early discards, huh...